Daily Papers

We introduce a differentiable estimator of range-partition entropy, a recent concept from computational geometry that enables algorithms to adapt to the "sortedness" of their input. While range-partition entropy provides strong guarantees in algorithm design, it has not yet been made accessible to deep learning. In this work, we (i) propose the first differentiable approximation of range-partition entropy, enabling its use as a trainable loss or regularizer; (ii) design EntropyNet, a neural module that restructures data into low-entropy forms to accelerate downstream instance-optimal algorithms; and (iii) extend this principle beyond geometry by applying entropy regularization directly to Transformer attention. Across tasks, we demonstrate that differentiable entropy improves efficiency without degrading correctness: in geometry, our method achieves up to 4.1times runtime speedups with negligible error (<0.2%); in deep learning, it induces structured attention patterns that yield 6% higher accuracy at 80% sparsity compared to L1 baselines. Our theoretical analysis provides approximation bounds for the estimator, and extensive ablations validate design choices. These results suggest that entropy-bounded computation is not only theoretically elegant but also a practical mechanism for adaptive learning, efficiency, and structured representation.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

Diffusion models are capable of generating impressive images conditioned on text descriptions, and extensions of these models allow users to edit images at a relatively coarse scale. However, the ability to precisely edit the layout, position, pose, and shape of objects in images with diffusion models is still difficult. To this end, we propose motion guidance, a zero-shot technique that allows a user to specify dense, complex motion fields that indicate where each pixel in an image should move. Motion guidance works by steering the diffusion sampling process with the gradients through an off-the-shelf optical flow network. Specifically, we design a guidance loss that encourages the sample to have the desired motion, as estimated by a flow network, while also being visually similar to the source image. By simultaneously sampling from a diffusion model and guiding the sample to have low guidance loss, we can obtain a motion-edited image. We demonstrate that our technique works on complex motions and produces high quality edits of real and generated images.

The growing computational demands of training large language models (LLMs) necessitate more efficient methods. Quantized training presents a promising solution by enabling low-bit arithmetic operations to reduce these costs. While FP8 precision has demonstrated feasibility, leveraging FP4 remains a challenge due to significant quantization errors and limited representational capacity. This work introduces the first FP4 training framework for LLMs, addressing these challenges with two key innovations: a differentiable quantization estimator for precise weight updates and an outlier clamping and compensation strategy to prevent activation collapse. To ensure stability, the framework integrates a mixed-precision training scheme and vector-wise quantization. Experimental results demonstrate that our FP4 framework achieves accuracy comparable to BF16 and FP8, with minimal degradation, scaling effectively to 13B-parameter LLMs trained on up to 100B tokens. With the emergence of next-generation hardware supporting FP4, our framework sets a foundation for efficient ultra-low precision training.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances large language models (LLMs) with external knowledge but still suffers from long contexts and disjoint retrieval-generation optimization. In this work, we propose CLaRa (Continuous Latent Reasoning), a unified framework that performs embedding-based compression and joint optimization in a shared continuous space. To obtain semantically rich and retrievable compressed vectors, we introduce SCP, a key-preserving data synthesis framework using QA and paraphrase supervision. CLaRa then trains the reranker and generator end-to-end via a single language modeling loss, with gradients flowing through both modules using a differentiable top-k estimator. Theoretically, this unified optimization aligns retrieval relevance with answer quality. Experiments across multiple QA benchmarks show that CLaRa achieves state-of-the-art compression and reranking performance, often surpassing text-based fine-tuned baselines.

Despite the recent advances in the video understanding ability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), long video understanding remains a challenge. One of the main issues is that the number of vision tokens grows linearly with video length, which causes an explosion in attention cost, memory, and latency. To solve this challenge, we present Query-aware Token Selector (QTSplus), a lightweight yet powerful visual token selection module that serves as an information gate between the vision encoder and LLMs. Given a text query and video tokens, QTSplus dynamically selects the most important visual evidence for the input text query by (i) scoring visual tokens via cross-attention, (ii) predicting an instance-specific retention budget based on the complexity of the query, and (iii) selecting Top-n tokens with a differentiable straight-through estimator during training and a hard gate at inference. Furthermore, a small re-encoder preserves temporal order using absolute time information, enabling second-level localization while maintaining global coverage. Integrated into Qwen2.5-VL, QTSplus compresses the vision stream by up to 89\% and reduces end-to-end latency by 28\% on long videos. The evaluation on eight long video understanding benchmarks shows near-parity accuracy overall when compared with the original Qwen models and outperforms the original model by +20.5 and +5.6 points respectively on TempCompass direction and order accuracies. These results show that QTSplus is an effective, general mechanism for scaling MLLMs to real-world long-video scenarios while preserving task-relevant evidence. We will make all code, data, and trained models' weights publicly available.

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to fine-grained cross-view geo-localization. Our method aligns a warped ground image with a corresponding GPS-tagged satellite image covering the same area using homography estimation. We first employ a differentiable spherical transform, adhering to geometric principles, to accurately align the perspective of the ground image with the satellite map. This transformation effectively places ground and aerial images in the same view and on the same plane, reducing the task to an image alignment problem. To address challenges such as occlusion, small overlapping range, and seasonal variations, we propose a robust correlation-aware homography estimator to align similar parts of the transformed ground image with the satellite image. Our method achieves sub-pixel resolution and meter-level GPS accuracy by mapping the center point of the transformed ground image to the satellite image using a homography matrix and determining the orientation of the ground camera using a point above the central axis. Operating at a speed of 30 FPS, our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, reducing the mean metric localization error by 21.3% and 32.4% in same-area and cross-area generalization tasks on the VIGOR benchmark, respectively, and by 34.4% on the KITTI benchmark in same-area evaluation.

Modern neural networks demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on numerous existing benchmarks; however, their high computational requirements and energy consumption prompt researchers to seek more efficient solutions for real-world deployment. Logic gate networks (LGNs) learns a large network of logic gates for efficient image classification. However, learning a network that can solve a simple problem like CIFAR-10 can take days to weeks to train. Even then, almost half of the network remains unused, causing a discretization gap. This discretization gap hinders real-world deployment of LGNs, as the performance drop between training and inference negatively impacts accuracy. We inject Gumbel noise with a straight-through estimator during training to significantly speed up training, improve neuron utilization, and decrease the discretization gap. We theoretically show that this results from implicit Hessian regularization, which improves the convergence properties of LGNs. We train networks 4.5 times faster in wall-clock time, reduce the discretization gap by 98%, and reduce the number of unused gates by 100%.

6D pose estimation of rigid objects is a long-standing and challenging task in computer vision. Recently, the emergence of deep learning reveals the potential of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to predict reliable 6D poses. Given that direct pose regression networks currently exhibit suboptimal performance, most methods still resort to traditional techniques to varying degrees. For example, top-performing methods often adopt an indirect strategy by first establishing 2D-3D or 3D-3D correspondences followed by applying the RANSAC-based PnP or Kabsch algorithms, and further employing ICP for refinement. Despite the performance enhancement, the integration of traditional techniques makes the networks time-consuming and not end-to-end trainable. Orthogonal to them, this paper introduces a fully learning-based object pose estimator. In this work, we first perform an in-depth investigation of both direct and indirect methods and propose a simple yet effective Geometry-guided Direct Regression Network (GDRN) to learn the 6D pose from monocular images in an end-to-end manner. Afterwards, we introduce a geometry-guided pose refinement module, enhancing pose accuracy when extra depth data is available. Guided by the predicted coordinate map, we build an end-to-end differentiable architecture that establishes robust and accurate 3D-3D correspondences between the observed and rendered RGB-D images to refine the pose. Our enhanced pose estimation pipeline GDRNPP (GDRN Plus Plus) conquered the leaderboard of the BOP Challenge for two consecutive years, becoming the first to surpass all prior methods that relied on traditional techniques in both accuracy and speed. The code and models are available at https://github.com/shanice-l/gdrnpp_bop2022.

Straight-through estimator (STE), which enables the gradient flow over the non-differentiable function via approximation, has been favored in studies related to quantization-aware training (QAT). However, STE incurs unstable convergence during QAT, resulting in notable quality degradation in low precision. Recently, pseudoquantization training has been proposed as an alternative approach to updating the learnable parameters using the pseudo-quantization noise instead of STE. In this study, we propose a novel noise proxy-based integrated pseudoquantization (NIPQ) that enables unified support of pseudoquantization for both activation and weight by integrating the idea of truncation on the pseudo-quantization framework. NIPQ updates all of the quantization parameters (e.g., bit-width and truncation boundary) as well as the network parameters via gradient descent without STE instability. According to our extensive experiments, NIPQ outperforms existing quantization algorithms in various vision and language applications by a large margin.

Existing vector quantization (VQ) methods struggle with scalability, largely attributed to the instability of the codebook that undergoes partial updates during training. The codebook is prone to collapse as utilization decreases, due to the progressively widening distribution gap between non-activated codes and visual features. To solve the problem, we propose Index Backpropagation Quantization (IBQ), a new VQ method for the joint optimization of all codebook embeddings and the visual encoder. Applying a straight-through estimator on the one-hot categorical distribution between the encoded feature and codebook, all codes are differentiable and maintain a consistent latent space with the visual encoder. IBQ enables scalable training of visual tokenizers and, for the first time, achieves a large-scale codebook (2^{18}) with high dimension (256) and high utilization. Experiments on the standard ImageNet benchmark demonstrate the scalability and superiority of IBQ, achieving competitive results on both reconstruction (1.00 rFID) and autoregressive visual generation (2.05 gFID). The code and models are available at https://github.com/TencentARC/SEED-Voken.

Categorical variables are a natural choice for representing discrete structure in the world. However, stochastic neural networks rarely use categorical latent variables due to the inability to backpropagate through samples. In this work, we present an efficient gradient estimator that replaces the non-differentiable sample from a categorical distribution with a differentiable sample from a novel Gumbel-Softmax distribution. This distribution has the essential property that it can be smoothly annealed into a categorical distribution. We show that our Gumbel-Softmax estimator outperforms state-of-the-art gradient estimators on structured output prediction and unsupervised generative modeling tasks with categorical latent variables, and enables large speedups on semi-supervised classification.

Policy gradient algorithms have been successfully applied to enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Despite the widespread use of Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization in policy gradient algorithms to stabilize training, the systematic exploration of how different KL divergence formulations can be estimated and integrated into surrogate loss functions for online reinforcement learning (RL) presents a nuanced and systematically explorable design space. In this paper, we propose regularized policy gradient (RPG), a systematic framework for deriving and analyzing KL-regularized policy gradient methods in the online RL setting. We derive policy gradients and corresponding surrogate loss functions for objectives regularized by both forward and reverse KL divergences, considering both normalized and unnormalized policy distributions. Furthermore, we present derivations for fully differentiable loss functions as well as REINFORCE-style gradient estimators, accommodating diverse algorithmic needs. We conduct extensive experiments on RL for LLM reasoning using these methods, showing improved or competitive results in terms of training stability and performance compared to strong baselines such as GRPO, REINFORCE++, and DAPO. The code is available at https://github.com/complex-reasoning/RPG.

We propose nabla-RANSAC, a generalized differentiable RANSAC that allows learning the entire randomized robust estimation pipeline. The proposed approach enables the use of relaxation techniques for estimating the gradients in the sampling distribution, which are then propagated through a differentiable solver. The trainable quality function marginalizes over the scores from all the models estimated within nabla-RANSAC to guide the network learning accurate and useful inlier probabilities or to train feature detection and matching networks. Our method directly maximizes the probability of drawing a good hypothesis, allowing us to learn better sampling distribution. We test nabla-RANSAC on a number of real-world scenarios on fundamental and essential matrix estimation, both outdoors and indoors, with handcrafted and learning-based features. It is superior to the state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy while running at a similar speed to its less accurate alternatives. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/weitong8591/differentiable_ransac.

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.

Stochastic neurons and hard non-linearities can be useful for a number of reasons in deep learning models, but in many cases they pose a challenging problem: how to estimate the gradient of a loss function with respect to the input of such stochastic or non-smooth neurons? I.e., can we "back-propagate" through these stochastic neurons? We examine this question, existing approaches, and compare four families of solutions, applicable in different settings. One of them is the minimum variance unbiased gradient estimator for stochatic binary neurons (a special case of the REINFORCE algorithm). A second approach, introduced here, decomposes the operation of a binary stochastic neuron into a stochastic binary part and a smooth differentiable part, which approximates the expected effect of the pure stochatic binary neuron to first order. A third approach involves the injection of additive or multiplicative noise in a computational graph that is otherwise differentiable. A fourth approach heuristically copies the gradient with respect to the stochastic output directly as an estimator of the gradient with respect to the sigmoid argument (we call this the straight-through estimator). To explore a context where these estimators are useful, we consider a small-scale version of {\em conditional computation}, where sparse stochastic units form a distributed representation of gaters that can turn off in combinatorially many ways large chunks of the computation performed in the rest of the neural network. In this case, it is important that the gating units produce an actual 0 most of the time. The resulting sparsity can be potentially be exploited to greatly reduce the computational cost of large deep networks for which conditional computation would be useful.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

Understanding and analyzing markets is crucial, yet analytical equilibrium solutions remain largely infeasible. Recent breakthroughs in equilibrium computation rely on zeroth-order policy gradient estimation. These approaches commonly suffer from high variance and are computationally expensive. The use of fully differentiable simulators would enable more efficient gradient estimation. However, the discrete allocation of goods in economic simulations is a non-differentiable operation. This renders the first-order Monte Carlo gradient estimator inapplicable and the learning feedback systematically misleading. We propose a novel smoothing technique that creates a surrogate market game, in which first-order methods can be applied. We provide theoretical bounds on the resulting bias which justifies solving the smoothed game instead. These bounds also allow choosing the smoothing strength a priori such that the resulting estimate has low variance. Furthermore, we validate our approach via numerous empirical experiments. Our method theoretically and empirically outperforms zeroth-order methods in approximation quality and computational efficiency.

We study the problem of efficiently generating differentially private synthetic data that approximate the statistical properties of an underlying sensitive dataset. In recent years, there has been a growing line of work that approaches this problem using first-order optimization techniques. However, such techniques are restricted to optimizing differentiable objectives only, severely limiting the types of analyses that can be conducted. For example, first-order mechanisms have been primarily successful in approximating statistical queries only in the form of marginals for discrete data domains. In some cases, one can circumvent such issues by relaxing the task's objective to maintain differentiability. However, even when possible, these approaches impose a fundamental limitation in which modifications to the minimization problem become additional sources of error. Therefore, we propose Private-GSD, a private genetic algorithm based on zeroth-order optimization heuristics that do not require modifying the original objective. As a result, it avoids the aforementioned limitations of first-order optimization. We empirically evaluate Private-GSD against baseline algorithms on data derived from the American Community Survey across a variety of statistics--otherwise known as statistical queries--both for discrete and real-valued attributes. We show that Private-GSD outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on non-differential queries while matching accuracy in approximating differentiable ones.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

We show how to transform a non-differentiable rasterizer into a differentiable one with minimal engineering efforts and no external dependencies (no Pytorch/Tensorflow). We rely on Stochastic Gradient Estimation, a technique that consists of rasterizing after randomly perturbing the scene's parameters such that their gradient can be stochastically estimated and descended. This method is simple and robust but does not scale in dimensionality (number of scene parameters). Our insight is that the number of parameters contributing to a given rasterized pixel is bounded. Estimating and averaging gradients on a per-pixel basis hence bounds the dimensionality of the underlying optimization problem and makes the method scalable. Furthermore, it is simple to track per-pixel contributing parameters by rasterizing ID- and UV-buffers, which are trivial additions to a rasterization engine if not already available. With these minor modifications, we obtain an in-engine optimizer for 3D assets with millions of geometry and texture parameters.

In the artificial neuron, I replace the dot product with the weighted Lehmer mean, which may emulate different cases of a generalized mean. The single neuron instance is replaced by a multiplet of neurons which have the same averaging weights. A group of outputs feed forward, in lieu of the single scalar. The generalization parameter is typically set to a different value for each neuron in the multiplet. I further extend the concept to a multiplet taken from the Gini mean. Derivatives with respect to the weight parameters and with respect to the two generalization parameters are given. Some properties of the network are investigated, showing the capacity to emulate the classical exclusive-or problem organically in two layers and perform some multiplication and division. The network can instantiate truncated power series and variants, which can be used to approximate different functions, provided that parameters are constrained. Moreover, a mean case slope score is derived that can facilitate a learning-rate novelty based on homogeneity of the selected elements. The multiplet neuron equation provides a way to segment regularization timeframes and approaches.

Differentiable programming techniques are widely used in the community and are responsible for the machine learning renaissance of the past several decades. While these methods are powerful, they have limits. In this short report, we discuss a common chaos based failure mode which appears in a variety of differentiable circumstances, ranging from recurrent neural networks and numerical physics simulation to training learned optimizers. We trace this failure to the spectrum of the Jacobian of the system under study, and provide criteria for when a practitioner might expect this failure to spoil their differentiation based optimization algorithms.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

We present a differentiable approach to learn the probabilistic factors used for inference by a nonparametric belief propagation algorithm. Existing nonparametric belief propagation methods rely on domain-specific features encoded in the probabilistic factors of a graphical model. In this work, we replace each crafted factor with a differentiable neural network enabling the factors to be learned using an efficient optimization routine from labeled data. By combining differentiable neural networks with an efficient belief propagation algorithm, our method learns to maintain a set of marginal posterior samples using end-to-end training. We evaluate our differentiable nonparametric belief propagation (DNBP) method on a set of articulated pose tracking tasks and compare performance with learned baselines. Results from these experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of using learned factors for tracking and suggest the practical advantage over hand-crafted approaches. The project webpage is available at: https://progress.eecs.umich.edu/projects/dnbp/ .

Recent work has shown that forward- and reverse- mode automatic differentiation (AD) over the reals is almost always correct in a mathematically precise sense. However, actual programs work with machine-representable numbers (e.g., floating-point numbers), not reals. In this paper, we study the correctness of AD when the parameter space of a neural network consists solely of machine-representable numbers. In particular, we analyze two sets of parameters on which AD can be incorrect: the incorrect set on which the network is differentiable but AD does not compute its derivative, and the non-differentiable set on which the network is non-differentiable. For a neural network with bias parameters, we first prove that the incorrect set is always empty. We then prove a tight bound on the size of the non-differentiable set, which is linear in the number of non-differentiabilities in activation functions, and give a simple necessary and sufficient condition for a parameter to be in this set. We further prove that AD always computes a Clarke subderivative even on the non-differentiable set. We also extend these results to neural networks possibly without bias parameters.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

Score-based generative models (SGMs) sample from a target distribution by iteratively transforming noise using the score function of the perturbed target. For any finite training set, this score function can be evaluated in closed form, but the resulting SGM memorizes its training data and does not generate novel samples. In practice, one approximates the score by training a neural network via score-matching. The error in this approximation promotes generalization, but neural SGMs are costly to train and sample, and the effective regularization this error provides is not well-understood theoretically. In this work, we instead explicitly smooth the closed-form score to obtain an SGM that generates novel samples without training. We analyze our model and propose an efficient nearest-neighbor-based estimator of its score function. Using this estimator, our method achieves competitive sampling times while running on consumer-grade CPUs.

Many evaluation metrics can be used to assess the performance of models in binary classification tasks. However, most of them are derived from a confusion matrix in a non-differentiable form, making it very difficult to generate a differentiable loss function that could directly optimize them. The lack of solutions to bridge this challenge not only hinders our ability to solve difficult tasks, such as imbalanced learning, but also requires the deployment of computationally expensive hyperparameter search processes in model selection. In this paper, we propose a general-purpose approach that transforms any confusion matrix-based metric into a loss function, AnyLoss, that is available in optimization processes. To this end, we use an approximation function to make a confusion matrix represented in a differentiable form, and this approach enables any confusion matrix-based metric to be directly used as a loss function. The mechanism of the approximation function is provided to ensure its operability and the differentiability of our loss functions is proved by suggesting their derivatives. We conduct extensive experiments under diverse neural networks with many datasets, and we demonstrate their general availability to target any confusion matrix-based metrics. Our method, especially, shows outstanding achievements in dealing with imbalanced datasets, and its competitive learning speed, compared to multiple baseline models, underscores its efficiency.

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x)=E[Ymid X=x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y-m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

Two major sources of training data exist for post-training modern language models: online (model-generated rollouts) data, and offline (human or other-model demonstrations) data. These two types of data are typically used by approaches like Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), respectively. In this paper, we show that these approaches are not in contradiction, but are instances of a single optimization process. We derive a Unified Policy Gradient Estimator, and present the calculations of a wide spectrum of post-training approaches as the gradient of a common objective under different data distribution assumptions and various bias-variance tradeoffs. The gradient estimator is constructed with four interchangeable parts: stabilization mask, reference policy denominator, advantage estimate, and likelihood gradient. Motivated by our theoretical findings, we propose Hybrid Post-Training (HPT), an algorithm that dynamically selects different training signals. HPT is designed to yield both effective exploitation of demonstration and stable exploration without sacrificing learned reasoning patterns. We provide extensive experiments and ablation studies to verify the effectiveness of our unified theoretical framework and HPT. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks and two out-of-distribution suites, HPT consistently surpasses strong baselines across models of varying scales and families.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Well-known activation functions like ReLU or Leaky ReLU are non-differentiable at the origin. Over the years, many smooth approximations of ReLU have been proposed using various smoothing techniques. We propose new smooth approximations of a non-differentiable activation function by convolving it with approximate identities. In particular, we present smooth approximations of Leaky ReLU and show that they outperform several well-known activation functions in various datasets and models. We call this function Smooth Activation Unit (SAU). Replacing ReLU by SAU, we get 5.12% improvement with ShuffleNet V2 (2.0x) model on CIFAR100 dataset.

Differentiable sorting algorithms allow training with sorting and ranking supervision, where only the ordering or ranking of samples is known. Various methods have been proposed to address this challenge, ranging from optimal transport-based differentiable Sinkhorn sorting algorithms to making classic sorting networks differentiable. One problem of current differentiable sorting methods is that they are non-monotonic. To address this issue, we propose a novel relaxation of conditional swap operations that guarantees monotonicity in differentiable sorting networks. We introduce a family of sigmoid functions and prove that they produce differentiable sorting networks that are monotonic. Monotonicity ensures that the gradients always have the correct sign, which is an advantage in gradient-based optimization. We demonstrate that monotonic differentiable sorting networks improve upon previous differentiable sorting methods.

This paper investigates the distinctions between gradient methods applied to non-differentiable functions (NGDMs) and classical gradient descents (GDs) designed for differentiable functions. First, we demonstrate significant differences in the convergence properties of NGDMs compared to GDs, challenging the applicability of the extensive neural network convergence literature based on L-smoothness to non-smooth neural networks. Next, we demonstrate the paradoxical nature of NGDM solutions for L_{1}-regularized problems, showing that increasing the regularization penalty leads to an increase in the L_{1} norm of optimal solutions in NGDMs. Consequently, we show that widely adopted L_{1} penalization-based techniques for network pruning do not yield expected results. Finally, we explore the Edge of Stability phenomenon, indicating its inapplicability even to Lipschitz continuous convex differentiable functions, leaving its relevance to non-convex non-differentiable neural networks inconclusive. Our analysis exposes misguided interpretations of NGDMs in widely referenced papers and texts due to an overreliance on strong smoothness assumptions, emphasizing the necessity for a nuanced understanding of foundational assumptions in the analysis of these systems.

Memory is a limiting resource for many deep learning tasks. Beside the neural network weights, one main memory consumer is the computation graph built up by automatic differentiation (AD) for backpropagation. We observe that PyTorch's current AD implementation neglects information about parameter differentiability when storing the computation graph. This information is useful though to reduce memory whenever gradients are requested for a parameter subset, as is the case in many modern fine-tuning tasks. Specifically, inputs to layers that act linearly in their parameters (dense, convolution, or normalization layers) can be discarded whenever the parameters are marked as non-differentiable. We provide a drop-in, differentiability-agnostic implementation of such layers and demonstrate its ability to reduce memory without affecting run time.

In this paper, we present RayTracer.jl, a renderer in Julia that is fully differentiable using source-to-source Automatic Differentiation (AD). This means that RayTracer not only renders 2D images from 3D scene parameters, but it can be used to optimize for model parameters that generate a target image in a Differentiable Programming (DP) pipeline. We interface our renderer with the deep learning library Flux for use in combination with neural networks. We demonstrate the use of this differentiable renderer in rendering tasks and in solving inverse graphics problems.

Turing machine and decision tree have developed independently for a long time. With the recent development of differentiable models, there is an intersection between them. Neural turing machine(NTM) opens door for the memory network. It use differentiable attention mechanism to read/write external memory bank. Differentiable forest brings differentiable properties to classical decision tree. In this short note, we show the deep connection between these two models. That is: differentiable forest is a special case of NTM. Differentiable forest is actually decision tree based neural turing machine. Based on this deep connection, we propose a response augmented differential forest (RaDF). The controller of RaDF is differentiable forest, the external memory of RaDF are response vectors which would be read/write by leaf nodes.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Model-agnostic meta-reinforcement learning requires estimating the Hessian matrix of value functions. This is challenging from an implementation perspective, as repeatedly differentiating policy gradient estimates may lead to biased Hessian estimates. In this work, we provide a unifying framework for estimating higher-order derivatives of value functions, based on off-policy evaluation. Our framework interprets a number of prior approaches as special cases and elucidates the bias and variance trade-off of Hessian estimates. This framework also opens the door to a new family of estimates, which can be easily implemented with auto-differentiation libraries, and lead to performance gains in practice.

We propose a new differentiable probabilistic model over DAGs (DP-DAG). DP-DAG allows fast and differentiable DAG sampling suited to continuous optimization. To this end, DP-DAG samples a DAG by successively (1) sampling a linear ordering of the node and (2) sampling edges consistent with the sampled linear ordering. We further propose VI-DP-DAG, a new method for DAG learning from observational data which combines DP-DAG with variational inference. Hence,VI-DP-DAG approximates the posterior probability over DAG edges given the observed data. VI-DP-DAG is guaranteed to output a valid DAG at any time during training and does not require any complex augmented Lagrangian optimization scheme in contrast to existing differentiable DAG learning approaches. In our extensive experiments, we compare VI-DP-DAG to other differentiable DAG learning baselines on synthetic and real datasets. VI-DP-DAG significantly improves DAG structure and causal mechanism learning while training faster than competitors.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Differentiable Neural Architecture Search is one of the most popular Neural Architecture Search (NAS) methods for its search efficiency and simplicity, accomplished by jointly optimizing the model weight and architecture parameters in a weight-sharing supernet via gradient-based algorithms. At the end of the search phase, the operations with the largest architecture parameters will be selected to form the final architecture, with the implicit assumption that the values of architecture parameters reflect the operation strength. While much has been discussed about the supernet's optimization, the architecture selection process has received little attention. We provide empirical and theoretical analysis to show that the magnitude of architecture parameters does not necessarily indicate how much the operation contributes to the supernet's performance. We propose an alternative perturbation-based architecture selection that directly measures each operation's influence on the supernet. We re-evaluate several differentiable NAS methods with the proposed architecture selection and find that it is able to extract significantly improved architectures from the underlying supernets consistently. Furthermore, we find that several failure modes of DARTS can be greatly alleviated with the proposed selection method, indicating that much of the poor generalization observed in DARTS can be attributed to the failure of magnitude-based architecture selection rather than entirely the optimization of its supernet.

Active learning is a machine learning paradigm that aims to improve the performance of a model by strategically selecting and querying unlabeled data. One effective selection strategy is to base it on the model's predictive uncertainty, which can be interpreted as a measure of how informative a sample is. The sample's distance to the decision boundary is a natural measure of predictive uncertainty, but it is often intractable to compute, especially for complex decision boundaries formed in multiclass classification tasks. To address this issue, this paper proposes the {\it least disagree metric} (LDM), defined as the smallest probability of disagreement of the predicted label, and an estimator for LDM proven to be asymptotically consistent under mild assumptions. The estimator is computationally efficient and can be easily implemented for deep learning models using parameter perturbation. The LDM-based active learning is performed by querying unlabeled data with the smallest LDM. Experimental results show that our LDM-based active learning algorithm obtains state-of-the-art overall performance on all considered datasets and deep architectures.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in estimation, especially when the model assumption is violated. However, the current form of the DR estimator is restricted to binary treatments, while the treatment can be continuous in many real-world applications. The primary obstacle to continuous treatments resides in the delta function present in the original DR estimator, making it infeasible in causal effect estimation and introducing a heavy computational burden in nuisance function estimation. To address these challenges, we propose a kernel-based DR estimator that can well handle continuous treatments. Equipped with its smoothness, we show that its oracle form is a consistent approximation of the influence function. Further, we propose a new approach to efficiently solve the nuisance functions. We then provide a comprehensive convergence analysis in terms of the mean square error. We demonstrate the utility of our estimator on synthetic datasets and real-world applications.

In this paper, we study two challenging problems in explainable AI (XAI) and data clustering. The first is how to directly design a neural network with inherent interpretability, rather than giving post-hoc explanations of a black-box model. The second is implementing discrete k-means with a differentiable neural network that embraces the advantages of parallel computing, online clustering, and clustering-favorable representation learning. To address these two challenges, we design a novel neural network, which is a differentiable reformulation of the vanilla k-means, called inTerpretable nEuraL cLustering (TELL). Our contributions are threefold. First, to the best of our knowledge, most existing XAI works focus on supervised learning paradigms. This work is one of the few XAI studies on unsupervised learning, in particular, data clustering. Second, TELL is an interpretable, or the so-called intrinsically explainable and transparent model. In contrast, most existing XAI studies resort to various means for understanding a black-box model with post-hoc explanations. Third, from the view of data clustering, TELL possesses many properties highly desired by k-means, including but not limited to online clustering, plug-and-play module, parallel computing, and provable convergence. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves superior performance comparing with 14 clustering approaches on three challenging data sets. The source code could be accessed at www.pengxi.me.

Diffusion models excel at capturing the natural design spaces of images, molecules, DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. However, rather than merely generating designs that are natural, we often aim to optimize downstream reward functions while preserving the naturalness of these design spaces. Existing methods for achieving this goal often require ``differentiable'' proxy models (e.g., classifier guidance or DPS) or involve computationally expensive fine-tuning of diffusion models (e.g., classifier-free guidance, RL-based fine-tuning). In our work, we propose a new method to address these challenges. Our algorithm is an iterative sampling method that integrates soft value functions, which looks ahead to how intermediate noisy states lead to high rewards in the future, into the standard inference procedure of pre-trained diffusion models. Notably, our approach avoids fine-tuning generative models and eliminates the need to construct differentiable models. This enables us to (1) directly utilize non-differentiable features/reward feedback, commonly used in many scientific domains, and (2) apply our method to recent discrete diffusion models in a principled way. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across several domains, including image generation, molecule generation, and DNA/RNA sequence generation. The code is available at https://github.com/masa-ue/SVDD{https://github.com/masa-ue/SVDD}.

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel classifiers. With some mild assumptions on the conditional probability eta(x)=P(Y=1mid X=x), we derive an upper bound on the classification excess risk of a kernel classifier using recent advances in the theory of kernel regression. We also obtain a minimax lower bound for Sobolev spaces, which shows the optimality of the proposed classifier. Our theoretical results can be extended to the generalization error of overparameterized neural network classifiers. To make our theoretical results more applicable in realistic settings, we also propose a simple method to estimate the interpolation smoothness of 2eta(x)-1 and apply the method to real datasets.

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.

Model selection is a strategy aimed at creating accurate and robust models. A key challenge in designing these algorithms is identifying the optimal model for classifying any particular input sample. This paper addresses this challenge and proposes a novel framework for differentiable model selection integrating machine learning and combinatorial optimization. The framework is tailored for ensemble learning, a strategy that combines the outputs of individually pre-trained models, and learns to select appropriate ensemble members for a particular input sample by transforming the ensemble learning task into a differentiable selection program trained end-to-end within the ensemble learning model. Tested on various tasks, the proposed framework demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness, outperforming conventional and advanced consensus rules across a variety of settings and learning tasks.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

We investigate the use of a stratified sampling approach for LIME Image, a popular model-agnostic explainable AI method for computer vision tasks, in order to reduce the artifacts generated by typical Monte Carlo sampling. Such artifacts are due to the undersampling of the dependent variable in the synthetic neighborhood around the image being explained, which may result in inadequate explanations due to the impossibility of fitting a linear regressor on the sampled data. We then highlight a connection with the Shapley theory, where similar arguments about undersampling and sample relevance were suggested in the past. We derive all the formulas and adjustment factors required for an unbiased stratified sampling estimator. Experiments show the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Binarization of neural networks is a dominant paradigm in neural networks compression. The pioneering work BinaryConnect uses Straight Through Estimator (STE) to mimic the gradients of the sign function, but it also causes the crucial inconsistency problem. Most of the previous methods design different estimators instead of STE to mitigate it. However, they ignore the fact that when reducing the estimating error, the gradient stability will decrease concomitantly. These highly divergent gradients will harm the model training and increase the risk of gradient vanishing and gradient exploding. To fully take the gradient stability into consideration, we present a new perspective to the BNNs training, regarding it as the equilibrium between the estimating error and the gradient stability. In this view, we firstly design two indicators to quantitatively demonstrate the equilibrium phenomenon. In addition, in order to balance the estimating error and the gradient stability well, we revise the original straight through estimator and propose a power function based estimator, Rectified Straight Through Estimator (ReSTE for short). Comparing to other estimators, ReSTE is rational and capable of flexibly balancing the estimating error with the gradient stability. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets show that ReSTE has excellent performance and surpasses the state-of-the-art methods without any auxiliary modules or losses.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection of variational objectives and gradient estimators, which are implemented monolithically (and without formal correctness arguments) in PPL backends. In this paper, we propose a more modular approach to supporting variational inference in PPLs, based on compositional program transformation. In our approach, variational objectives are expressed as programs, that may employ first-class constructs for computing densities of and expected values under user-defined models and variational families. We then transform these programs systematically into unbiased gradient estimators for optimizing the objectives they define. Our design enables modular reasoning about many interacting concerns, including automatic differentiation, density accumulation, tracing, and the application of unbiased gradient estimation strategies. Additionally, relative to existing support for VI in PPLs, our design increases expressiveness along three axes: (1) it supports an open-ended set of user-defined variational objectives, rather than a fixed menu of options; (2) it supports a combinatorial space of gradient estimation strategies, many not automated by today's PPLs; and (3) it supports a broader class of models and variational families, because it supports constructs for approximate marginalization and normalization (previously introduced only for Monte Carlo inference). We implement our approach in an extension to the Gen probabilistic programming system (genjax.vi, implemented in JAX), and evaluate on several deep generative modeling tasks, showing minimal performance overhead vs. hand-coded implementations and performance competitive with well-established open-source PPLs.

In this work, we propose marginalized operators, a new class of off-policy evaluation operators for reinforcement learning. Marginalized operators strictly generalize generic multi-step operators, such as Retrace, as special cases. Marginalized operators also suggest a form of sample-based estimates with potential variance reduction, compared to sample-based estimates of the original multi-step operators. We show that the estimates for marginalized operators can be computed in a scalable way, which also generalizes prior results on marginalized importance sampling as special cases. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that marginalized operators provide performance gains to off-policy evaluation and downstream policy optimization algorithms.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable generation quality but at the cost of numerous function evaluations. Recently, advanced ODE-based solvers have been developed to mitigate the substantial computational demands of reverse-diffusion solving under limited sampling steps. However, these solvers, heavily inspired by Adams-like multistep methods, rely solely on t-related Lagrange interpolation. We show that t-related Lagrange interpolation is suboptimal for diffusion model and reveal a compact search space comprised of time steps and solver coefficients. Building on our analysis, we propose a novel differentiable solver search algorithm to identify more optimal solver. Equipped with the searched solver, rectified-flow models, e.g., SiT-XL/2 and FlowDCN-XL/2, achieve FID scores of 2.40 and 2.35, respectively, on ImageNet256 with only 10 steps. Meanwhile, DDPM model, DiT-XL/2, reaches a FID score of 2.33 with only 10 steps. Notably, our searched solver outperforms traditional solvers by a significant margin. Moreover, our searched solver demonstrates generality across various model architectures, resolutions, and model sizes.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

In this paper, we study the problem of principal component analysis with generative modeling assumptions, adopting a general model for the observed matrix that encompasses notable special cases, including spiked matrix recovery and phase retrieval. The key assumption is that the underlying signal lies near the range of an L-Lipschitz continuous generative model with bounded k-dimensional inputs. We propose a quadratic estimator, and show that it enjoys a statistical rate of order frac{klog L{m}}, where m is the number of samples. We also provide a near-matching algorithm-independent lower bound. Moreover, we provide a variant of the classic power method, which projects the calculated data onto the range of the generative model during each iteration. We show that under suitable conditions, this method converges exponentially fast to a point achieving the above-mentioned statistical rate. We perform experiments on various image datasets for spiked matrix and phase retrieval models, and illustrate performance gains of our method to the classic power method and the truncated power method devised for sparse principal component analysis.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Denoising diffusion models are a powerful type of generative models used to capture complex distributions of real-world signals. However, their applicability is limited to scenarios where training samples are readily available, which is not always the case in real-world applications. For example, in inverse graphics, the goal is to generate samples from a distribution of 3D scenes that align with a given image, but ground-truth 3D scenes are unavailable and only 2D images are accessible. To address this limitation, we propose a novel class of denoising diffusion probabilistic models that learn to sample from distributions of signals that are never directly observed. Instead, these signals are measured indirectly through a known differentiable forward model, which produces partial observations of the unknown signal. Our approach involves integrating the forward model directly into the denoising process. This integration effectively connects the generative modeling of observations with the generative modeling of the underlying signals, allowing for end-to-end training of a conditional generative model over signals. During inference, our approach enables sampling from the distribution of underlying signals that are consistent with a given partial observation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three challenging computer vision tasks. For instance, in the context of inverse graphics, our model enables direct sampling from the distribution of 3D scenes that align with a single 2D input image.

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large numbers of variables. Moreover, these methods frequently assume linearity or invertibility, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios. We present new theoretical results on the identifiability of nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, relaxing previous assumptions in literature about the deterministic nature of latent variables and exogenous noise. Building on these insights, we develop a novel differentiable causal discovery algorithm that efficiently estimates the structure of such models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to propose a differentiable causal discovery method for nonlinear latent hierarchical models. Our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and scalability. We demonstrate its practical utility by learning interpretable hierarchical latent structures from high-dimensional image data and demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream tasks.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models have achieved strong performance in semantic alignment, yet they still struggle with generating the correct number of objects specified in prompts. Existing approaches typically incorporate auxiliary counting networks as external critics to enhance numeracy. However, since these critics must provide gradient guidance during generation, they are restricted to regression-based models that are inherently differentiable, thus excluding detector-based models with superior counting ability, whose count-via-enumeration nature is non-differentiable. To overcome this limitation, we propose Detector-to-Differentiable (D2D), a novel framework that transforms non-differentiable detection models into differentiable critics, thereby leveraging their superior counting ability to guide numeracy generation. Specifically, we design custom activation functions to convert detector logits into soft binary indicators, which are then used to optimize the noise prior at inference time with pre-trained T2I models. Our extensive experiments on SDXL-Turbo, SD-Turbo, and Pixart-DMD across four benchmarks of varying complexity (low-density, high-density, and multi-object scenarios) demonstrate consistent and substantial improvements in object counting accuracy (e.g., boosting up to 13.7% on D2D-Small, a 400-prompt, low-density benchmark), with minimal degradation in overall image quality and computational overhead.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

Machine learning models have recently found tremendous success in data-driven control systems. However, standard learning models often suffer from an accuracy-robustness trade-off, which is a limitation that must be overcome in the control of safety-critical systems that require both high performance and rigorous robustness guarantees. In this work, we build upon the recent "locally biased smoothing" method to develop classifiers that simultaneously inherit high accuracy from standard models and high robustness from robust models. Specifically, we extend locally biased smoothing to the multi-class setting, and then overcome its performance bottleneck by generalizing the formulation to "mix" the outputs of a standard neural network and a robust neural network. We prove that when the robustness of the robust base model is certifiable, within a closed-form ell_p radius, no alteration or attack on an input can result in misclassification of the mixed classifier; the proposed model inherits the certified robustness. Moreover, we use numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10 benchmark dataset to verify that the mixed model noticeably improves the accuracy-robustness trade-off.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a computational point of view and cannot be applied to maximum likelihood training in a scalable manner, which severely hinders their widespread adoption. In this work, we overcome these crucial limitations. Specifically, we propose a fast path gradient estimator which improves computational efficiency significantly and works for all normalizing flow architectures of practical relevance. We then show that this estimator can also be applied to maximum likelihood training for which it has a regularizing effect as it can take the form of a given target energy function into account. We empirically establish its superior performance and reduced variance for several natural sciences applications.

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

Training deep generative models like Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) is often hindered by the need to backpropagate gradients through the stochastic sampling of their latent variables, a process that inherently introduces estimation variance, which can slow convergence and degrade performance. In this paper, we propose a new perspective that sidesteps this problem, which we call Silent Gradients. Instead of improving stochastic estimators, we leverage specific decoder architectures to analytically compute the expected ELBO, yielding a gradient with zero variance. We first provide a theoretical foundation for this method and demonstrate its superiority over existing estimators in a controlled setting with a linear decoder. To generalize our approach for practical use with complex, expressive decoders, we introduce a novel training dynamic that uses the exact, zero-variance gradient to guide the early stages of encoder training before annealing to a standard stochastic estimator. Our experiments show that this technique consistently improves the performance of established baselines, including reparameterization, Gumbel-Softmax, and REINFORCE, across multiple datasets. This work opens a new direction for training generative models by combining the stability of analytical computation with the expressiveness of deep, nonlinear architecture.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

Optimization and generalization are two essential aspects of statistical machine learning. In this paper, we propose a framework to connect optimization with generalization by analyzing the generalization error based on the optimization trajectory under the gradient flow algorithm. The key ingredient of this framework is the Uniform-LGI, a property that is generally satisfied when training machine learning models. Leveraging the Uniform-LGI, we first derive convergence rates for gradient flow algorithm, then we give generalization bounds for a large class of machine learning models. We further apply our framework to three distinct machine learning models: linear regression, kernel regression, and two-layer neural networks. Through our approach, we obtain generalization estimates that match or extend previous results.

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Differentiable neural architecture search methods became popular in recent years, mainly due to their low search costs and flexibility in designing the search space. However, these methods suffer the difficulty in optimizing network, so that the searched network is often unfriendly to hardware. This paper deals with this problem by adding a differentiable latency loss term into optimization, so that the search process can tradeoff between accuracy and latency with a balancing coefficient. The core of latency prediction is to encode each network architecture and feed it into a multi-layer regressor, with the training data which can be easily collected from randomly sampling a number of architectures and evaluating them on the hardware. We evaluate our approach on NVIDIA Tesla-P100 GPUs. With 100K sampled architectures (requiring a few hours), the latency prediction module arrives at a relative error of lower than 10%. Equipped with this module, the search method can reduce the latency by 20% meanwhile preserving the accuracy. Our approach also enjoys the ability of being transplanted to a wide range of hardware platforms with very few efforts, or being used to optimizing other non-differentiable factors such as power consumption.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

We characterize the statistical efficiency of knowledge transfer through n samples from a teacher to a probabilistic student classifier with input space mathcal S over labels mathcal A. We show that privileged information at three progressive levels accelerates the transfer. At the first level, only samples with hard labels are known, via which the maximum likelihood estimator attains the minimax rate {|{mathcal S||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. The second level has the teacher probabilities of sampled labels available in addition, which turns out to boost the convergence rate lower bound to {{|{mathcal S}||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. However, under this second data acquisition protocol, minimizing a naive adaptation of the cross-entropy loss results in an asymptotically biased student. We overcome this limitation and achieve the fundamental limit by using a novel empirical variant of the squared error logit loss. The third level further equips the student with the soft labels (complete logits) on {mathcal A} given every sampled input, thereby provably enables the student to enjoy a rate {|{mathcal S}|}/{n} free of |{mathcal A}|. We find any Kullback-Leibler divergence minimizer to be optimal in the last case. Numerical simulations distinguish the four learners and corroborate our theory.

Production deployments in complex systems require ML architectures to be highly efficient and usable against multiple tasks. Particularly demanding are classification problems in which data arrives in a streaming fashion and each class is presented separately. Recent methods with stochastic gradient learning have been shown to struggle in such setups or have limitations like memory buffers, and being restricted to specific domains that disable its usage in real-world scenarios. For this reason, we present a fully differentiable architecture based on the Mixture of Experts model, that enables the training of high-performance classifiers when examples from each class are presented separately. We conducted exhaustive experiments that proved its applicability in various domains and ability to learn online in production environments. The proposed technique achieves SOTA results without a memory buffer and clearly outperforms the reference methods.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

We propose a novel theoretical framework of analysis for Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). We reveal a fundamental flaw of previous analyses which, by incorrectly modeling GANs' training scheme, are subject to ill-defined discriminator gradients. We overcome this issue which impedes a principled study of GAN training, solving it within our framework by taking into account the discriminator's architecture. To this end, we leverage the theory of infinite-width neural networks for the discriminator via its Neural Tangent Kernel. We characterize the trained discriminator for a wide range of losses and establish general differentiability properties of the network. From this, we derive new insights about the convergence of the generated distribution, advancing our understanding of GANs' training dynamics. We empirically corroborate these results via an analysis toolkit based on our framework, unveiling intuitions that are consistent with GAN practice.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

Neural networks surround us, in the form of large language models, speech transcription systems, molecular discovery algorithms, robotics, and much more. Stripped of anything else, neural networks are compositions of differentiable primitives, and studying them means learning how to program and how to interact with these models, a particular example of what is called differentiable programming. This primer is an introduction to this fascinating field imagined for someone, like Alice, who has just ventured into this strange differentiable wonderland. I overview the basics of optimizing a function via automatic differentiation, and a selection of the most common designs for handling sequences, graphs, texts, and audios. The focus is on a intuitive, self-contained introduction to the most important design techniques, including convolutional, attentional, and recurrent blocks, hoping to bridge the gap between theory and code (PyTorch and JAX) and leaving the reader capable of understanding some of the most advanced models out there, such as large language models (LLMs) and multimodal architectures.

We propose Delta L Normalization, a simple yet effective loss aggregation method tailored to the characteristic of dynamic generation lengths in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Recently, RLVR has demonstrated strong potential in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but a major challenge lies in the large variability of response lengths during training, which leads to high gradient variance and unstable optimization. Although previous methods such as GRPO, DAPO, and Dr. GRPO introduce different loss normalization terms to address this issue, they either produce biased estimates or still suffer from high gradient variance. By analyzing the effect of varying lengths on policy loss both theoretically and empirically, we reformulate the problem as finding a minimum-variance unbiased estimator. Our proposed Delta L Normalization not only provides an unbiased estimate of the true policy loss but also minimizes gradient variance in theory. Extensive experiments show that it consistently achieves superior results across different model sizes, maximum lengths, and tasks. Our code will be made public at https://github.com/zerolllin/Delta-L-Normalization.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

Smoothness and low dimensional structures play central roles in improving generalization and stability in learning and statistics. This work combines techniques from semi-infinite constrained learning and manifold regularization to learn representations that are globally smooth on a manifold. To do so, it shows that under typical conditions the problem of learning a Lipschitz continuous function on a manifold is equivalent to a dynamically weighted manifold regularization problem. This observation leads to a practical algorithm based on a weighted Laplacian penalty whose weights are adapted using stochastic gradient techniques. It is shown that under mild conditions, this method estimates the Lipschitz constant of the solution, learning a globally smooth solution as a byproduct. Experiments on real world data illustrate the advantages of the proposed method relative to existing alternatives.

Automatic differentiation through digital signal processing algorithms for virtual analogue modelling has recently gained popularity. These algorithms are typically more computationally efficient than black-box neural networks that rely on dense matrix multiplications. Due to their differentiable nature, they can be integrated with neural networks and jointly trained using gradient descent algorithms, resulting in more efficient systems. Furthermore, signal processing algorithms have significantly fewer parameters than neural networks, allowing the application of the Newton-Raphson method. This method offers faster and more robust convergence than gradient descent at the cost of quadratic storage. This paper presents a method to emulate analogue levelling amplifiers using a feed-forward digital compressor with parameters optimised via the Newton-Raphson method. We demonstrate that a digital compressor can successfully approximate the behaviour of our target unit, the Teletronix LA-2A. Different strategies for computing the Hessian matrix are benchmarked. We leverage parallel algorithms for recursive filters to achieve efficient training on modern GPUs. The resulting model is made into a VST plugin and is open-sourced at https://github.com/aim-qmul/4a2a.

Learning to Rank (LTR) algorithms are usually evaluated using Information Retrieval metrics like Normalised Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) or Mean Average Precision. As these metrics rely on sorting predicted items' scores (and thus, on items' ranks), their derivatives are either undefined or zero everywhere. This makes them unsuitable for gradient-based optimisation, which is the usual method of learning appropriate scoring functions. Commonly used LTR loss functions are only loosely related to the evaluation metrics, causing a mismatch between the optimisation objective and the evaluation criterion. In this paper, we address this mismatch by proposing NeuralNDCG, a novel differentiable approximation to NDCG. Since NDCG relies on the non-differentiable sorting operator, we obtain NeuralNDCG by relaxing that operator using NeuralSort, a differentiable approximation of sorting. As a result, we obtain a new ranking loss function which is an arbitrarily accurate approximation to the evaluation metric, thus closing the gap between the training and the evaluation of LTR models. We introduce two variants of the proposed loss function. Finally, the empirical evaluation shows that our proposed method outperforms previous work aimed at direct optimisation of NDCG and is competitive with the state-of-the-art methods.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) encode a lot of information about a particular distribution in their structure. However, compute required to infer these structures is typically super-exponential in the number of variables, as inference requires a sweep of a combinatorially large space of potential structures. That is, until recent advances made it possible to search this space using a differentiable metric, drastically reducing search time. While this technique -- named NOTEARS -- is widely considered a seminal work in DAG-discovery, it concedes an important property in favour of differentiability: transportability. To be transportable, the structures discovered on one dataset must apply to another dataset from the same domain. We introduce D-Struct which recovers transportability in the discovered structures through a novel architecture and loss function while remaining fully differentiable. Because D-Struct remains differentiable, our method can be easily adopted in existing differentiable architectures, as was previously done with NOTEARS. In our experiments, we empirically validate D-Struct with respect to edge accuracy and structural Hamming distance in a variety of settings.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

This paper investigates efficient deep neural networks (DNNs) to replace dense unstructured weight matrices with structured ones that possess desired properties. The challenge arises because the optimal weight matrix structure in popular neural network models is obscure in most cases and may vary from layer to layer even in the same network. Prior structured matrices proposed for efficient DNNs were mostly hand-crafted without a generalized framework to systematically learn them. To address this issue, we propose a generalized and differentiable framework to learn efficient structures of weight matrices by gradient descent. We first define a new class of structured matrices that covers a wide range of structured matrices in the literature by adjusting the structural parameters. Then, the frequency-domain differentiable parameterization scheme based on the Gaussian-Dirichlet kernel is adopted to learn the structural parameters by proximal gradient descent. On the image and language tasks, our method learns efficient DNNs with structured matrices, achieving lower complexity and/or higher performance than prior approaches that employ low-rank, block-sparse, or block-low-rank matrices.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Generative models form the backbone of modern machine learning, underpinning state-of-the-art systems in text, vision, and multimodal applications. While Maximum Likelihood Estimation has traditionally served as the dominant training paradigm, recent work have highlighted its limitations, particularly in generalization and susceptibility to catastrophic forgetting compared to Reinforcement Learning techniques, such as Policy Gradient methods. However, these approaches depend on explicit reward signals, which are often unavailable in practice, leaving open the fundamental problem of how to align generative models when only high-quality datasets are accessible. In this work, we address this challenge via a Bilevel Optimization framework, where the reward function is treated as the optimization variable of an outer-level problem, while a policy gradient objective defines the inner-level. We then conduct a theoretical analysis of this optimization problem in a tractable setting and extract insights that, as we demonstrate, generalize to applications such as tabular classification and model-based reinforcement learning. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/nll_to_po .

JPEG remains one of the most widespread lossy image coding methods. However, the non-differentiable nature of JPEG restricts the application in deep learning pipelines. Several differentiable approximations of JPEG have recently been proposed to address this issue. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of existing diff. JPEG approaches and identifies critical details that have been missed by previous methods. To this end, we propose a novel diff. JPEG approach, overcoming previous limitations. Our approach is differentiable w.r.t. the input image, the JPEG quality, the quantization tables, and the color conversion parameters. We evaluate the forward and backward performance of our diff. JPEG approach against existing methods. Additionally, extensive ablations are performed to evaluate crucial design choices. Our proposed diff. JPEG resembles the (non-diff.) reference implementation best, significantly surpassing the recent-best diff. approach by 3.47dB (PSNR) on average. For strong compression rates, we can even improve PSNR by 9.51dB. Strong adversarial attack results are yielded by our diff. JPEG, demonstrating the effective gradient approximation. Our code is available at https://github.com/necla-ml/Diff-JPEG.

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an equivalent number of gradient descent updates and show explicitly that stochastic gradient descent acts to regularize generalization error by decorrelating nearby updates. These calculations depends on the details of the model only through the mean and covariance of the gradient distribution, which may be readily measured for particular models of interest. We discuss further improvements to these calculations and comment on possible implications for stochastic optimization.

Differentiable architecture search (DARTS) is an effective method for data-driven neural network design based on solving a bilevel optimization problem. Despite its success in many architecture search tasks, there are still some concerns about the accuracy of first-order DARTS and the efficiency of the second-order DARTS. In this paper, we formulate a single level alternative and a relaxed architecture search (RARTS) method that utilizes the whole dataset in architecture learning via both data and network splitting, without involving mixed second derivatives of the corresponding loss functions like DARTS. In our formulation of network splitting, two networks with different but related weights cooperate in search of a shared architecture. The advantage of RARTS over DARTS is justified by a convergence theorem and an analytically solvable model. Moreover, RARTS outperforms DARTS and its variants in accuracy and search efficiency, as shown in adequate experimental results. For the task of searching topological architecture, i.e., the edges and the operations, RARTS obtains a higher accuracy and 60\% reduction of computational cost than second-order DARTS on CIFAR-10. RARTS continues to out-perform DARTS upon transfer to ImageNet and is on par with recent variants of DARTS even though our innovation is purely on the training algorithm without modifying search space. For the task of searching width, i.e., the number of channels in convolutional layers, RARTS also outperforms the traditional network pruning benchmarks. Further experiments on the public architecture search benchmark like NATS-Bench also support the preeminence of RARTS.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

This paper studies a machine learning regression problem as a multivariate approximation problem using the framework of the theory of random functions. An ab initio derivation of a regression method is proposed, starting from postulates of indifference. It is shown that if a probability measure on an infinite-dimensional function space possesses natural symmetries (invariance under translation, rotation, scaling, and Gaussianity), then the entire solution scheme, including the kernel form, the type of regularization, and the noise parameterization, follows analytically from these postulates. The resulting kernel coincides with a generalized polyharmonic spline; however, unlike existing approaches, it is not chosen empirically but arises as a consequence of the indifference principle. This result provides a theoretical foundation for a broad class of smoothing and interpolation methods, demonstrating their optimality in the absence of a priori information.

Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even longitudinal settings. While very diverse, the solution has mostly relied on neural networks for inference and simultaneous correction of assignment bias. New approaches typically build on top of previous approaches by proposing new (or refined) architectures and learning algorithms. However, the end result -- a neural-network-based inference machine -- remains unchallenged. In this paper, we introduce a different type of solution in the longitudinal setting: a closed-form ordinary differential equation (ODE). While we still rely on continuous optimization to learn an ODE, the resulting inference machine is no longer a neural network. Doing so yields several advantages such as interpretability, irregular sampling, and a different set of identification assumptions. Above all, we consider the introduction of a completely new type of solution to be our most important contribution as it may spark entirely new innovations in treatment effects in general. We facilitate this by formulating our contribution as a framework that can transform any ODE discovery method into a treatment effects method.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

A simple and effective method for the alignment of generative models is the best-of-n policy, where n samples are drawn from a base policy, and ranked based on a reward function, and the highest ranking one is selected. A commonly used analytical expression in the literature claims that the KL divergence between the best-of-n policy and the base policy is equal to log (n) - (n-1)/n. We disprove the validity of this claim, and show that it is an upper bound on the actual KL divergence. We also explore the tightness of this upper bound in different regimes. Finally, we propose a new estimator for the KL divergence and empirically show that it provides a tight approximation through a few examples.

The equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability is a fundamental phenomenon in learning theory. With variants ranging from classical settings like PAC learning and regression to recent trends such as adversarially robust learning, it's surprising that we still lack a unified theory; traditional proofs of the equivalence tend to be disparate, and rely on strong model-specific assumptions like uniform convergence and sample compression. In this work, we give the first model-independent framework explaining the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability: a three-line blackbox reduction that simplifies, unifies, and extends our understanding across a wide variety of settings. This includes models with no known characterization of learnability such as learning with arbitrary distributional assumptions and more general loss functions, as well as a host of other popular settings such as robust learning, partial learning, fair learning, and the statistical query model. More generally, we argue that the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learning is actually a special case of a broader phenomenon we call property generalization: any desirable property of a learning algorithm (e.g. noise tolerance, privacy, stability) that can be satisfied over finite hypothesis classes extends (possibly in some variation) to any learnable hypothesis class.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.