Daily Papers

Given thousands of equally accurate machine learning (ML) models, how can users choose among them? A recent ML technique enables domain experts and data scientists to generate a complete Rashomon set for sparse decision trees--a huge set of almost-optimal interpretable ML models. To help ML practitioners identify models with desirable properties from this Rashomon set, we develop TimberTrek, the first interactive visualization system that summarizes thousands of sparse decision trees at scale. Two usage scenarios highlight how TimberTrek can empower users to easily explore, compare, and curate models that align with their domain knowledge and values. Our open-source tool runs directly in users' computational notebooks and web browsers, lowering the barrier to creating more responsible ML models. TimberTrek is available at the following public demo link: https://poloclub.github.io/timbertrek.

Originally proposed for handling time series data, Auto-regressive Decision Trees (ARDTs) have not yet been explored for language modeling. This paper delves into both the theoretical and practical applications of ARDTs in this new context. We theoretically demonstrate that ARDTs can compute complex functions, such as simulating automata, Turing machines, and sparse circuits, by leveraging "chain-of-thought" computations. Our analysis provides bounds on the size, depth, and computational efficiency of ARDTs, highlighting their surprising computational power. Empirically, we train ARDTs on simple language generation tasks, showing that they can learn to generate coherent and grammatically correct text on par with a smaller Transformer model. Additionally, we show that ARDTs can be used on top of transformer representations to solve complex reasoning tasks. This research reveals the unique computational abilities of ARDTs, aiming to broaden the architectural diversity in language model development.

Continuous control tasks often involve high-dimensional, dynamic, and non-linear environments. State-of-the-art performance in these tasks is achieved through complex closed-box policies that are effective, but suffer from an inherent opacity. Interpretable policies, while generally underperforming compared to their closed-box counterparts, advantageously facilitate transparent decision-making within automated systems. Hence, their usage is often essential for diagnosing and mitigating errors, supporting ethical and legal accountability, and fostering trust among stakeholders. In this paper, we propose SMOSE, a novel method to train sparsely activated interpretable controllers, based on a top-1 Mixture-of-Experts architecture. SMOSE combines a set of interpretable decisionmakers, trained to be experts in different basic skills, and an interpretable router that assigns tasks among the experts. The training is carried out via state-of-the-art Reinforcement Learning algorithms, exploiting load-balancing techniques to ensure fair expert usage. We then distill decision trees from the weights of the router, significantly improving the ease of interpretation. We evaluate SMOSE on six benchmark environments from MuJoCo: our method outperforms recent interpretable baselines and narrows the gap with noninterpretable state-of-the-art algorithms

Interpretability in machine learning (ML) is crucial for high stakes decisions and troubleshooting. In this work, we provide fundamental principles for interpretable ML, and dispel common misunderstandings that dilute the importance of this crucial topic. We also identify 10 technical challenge areas in interpretable machine learning and provide history and background on each problem. Some of these problems are classically important, and some are recent problems that have arisen in the last few years. These problems are: (1) Optimizing sparse logical models such as decision trees; (2) Optimization of scoring systems; (3) Placing constraints into generalized additive models to encourage sparsity and better interpretability; (4) Modern case-based reasoning, including neural networks and matching for causal inference; (5) Complete supervised disentanglement of neural networks; (6) Complete or even partial unsupervised disentanglement of neural networks; (7) Dimensionality reduction for data visualization; (8) Machine learning models that can incorporate physics and other generative or causal constraints; (9) Characterization of the "Rashomon set" of good models; and (10) Interpretable reinforcement learning. This survey is suitable as a starting point for statisticians and computer scientists interested in working in interpretable machine learning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable abilities across various language tasks, but solving complex reasoning problems remains a challenge. While existing methods like Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Tree-of-Thought (ToT) enhance reasoning by decomposing problems or structuring prompts, they typically perform a single pass of reasoning and may fail to revisit flawed paths, compromising accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel reasoning framework called Forest-of-Thought (FoT), which integrates multiple reasoning trees to leverage collective decision-making for solving complex logical problems. FoT utilizes sparse activation strategies to select the most relevant reasoning paths, improving both efficiency and accuracy. Additionally, we introduce a dynamic self-correction strategy that enables real-time error correction and learning from past mistakes, as well as consensus-guided decision making strategies to optimize correctness and computational resources. Experimental results demonstrate that the FoT framework, combined with these strategies, significantly enhances the reasoning capabilities of LLMs, enabling them to solve complex tasks with greater precision and efficiency.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) can efficiently identify candidate monosemantic features from pretrained neural networks for galaxy morphology. We demonstrate this on Euclid Q1 images using both supervised (Zoobot) and new self-supervised (MAE) models. Our publicly released MAE achieves superhuman image reconstruction performance. While a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the supervised model primarily identifies features already aligned with the Galaxy Zoo decision tree, SAEs can identify interpretable features outside of this framework. SAE features also show stronger alignment than PCA with Galaxy Zoo labels. Although challenges in interpretability remain, SAEs provide a powerful engine for discovering astrophysical phenomena beyond the confines of human-defined classification.

Prior art in traffic incident detection relies on high sensor coverage and is primarily based on decision-tree and random forest models that have limited representation capacity and, as a result, cannot detect incidents with high accuracy. This paper presents IncidentNet - a novel approach for classifying, localizing, and estimating the severity of traffic incidents using deep learning models trained on data captured from sparsely placed sensors in urban environments. Our model works on microscopic traffic data that can be collected using cameras installed at traffic intersections. Due to the unavailability of datasets that provide microscopic traffic details and traffic incident details simultaneously, we also present a methodology to generate a synthetic microscopic traffic dataset that matches given macroscopic traffic data. IncidentNet achieves a traffic incident detection rate of 98%, with false alarm rates of less than 7% in 197 seconds on average in urban environments with cameras on less than 20% of the traffic intersections.